Should You Grade Your Pokémon Cards? Here’s the Math

Should You Grade Your Pokémon Cards? Here’s the Math

If you collect long enough, you hit the fork in the road: send a card to a grading company or sell it raw today. Grading can multiply value, but it can also burn time and cash if the card tops out at a mid grade. This guide runs the actual math for common scenarios, compares PSA and CGC outcomes, and gives you a simple checklist to decide quickly without wishful thinking.

Start With Value Drivers, Not Hype

Grading only pays when a card already has the right ingredients. Scarcity, condition, playability, nostalgia, and timing are the real movers. If you want a refresher on those fundamentals, skim the breakdown in What Makes a Pokémon Card Valuable? (Beyond Just Rarity) and come back here for the numbers.

The Three Numbers That Matter

You need only three inputs to build a grading decision like a business case.

1. All-in grading cost: submission tier fee + shipping both ways + insurance + card saver and sleeves. Round up; surprises happen.
2. Likely grade range: be honest about centering, corners, edges, surface. Assume a two-grade window.
3. Current market prices by grade: real comps for that exact set, edition, and grade, not screenshots of record highs.

Example One: Modern Ultra Rare, Clean Copy

Imagine a modern ultra rare that sells raw for $60 in near mint, with recent PSA 9 sales at $110 and PSA 10 sales at $220. CGC 9.5 sells around $140 and CGC 10 around $200.

• PSA regular tier all-in cost: $30 fee + $10 shared shipping/insurance = $40.
• CGC standard tier all-in cost: $16 fee + $10 shared shipping/insurance = $26.

Outcome math if your pre-grade is honest:

• If it lands PSA 10: revenue $220 minus $40 costs = $180 net before marketplace fees. Versus selling raw at $60, grading adds $120 of gross upside.
• If it lands PSA 9: revenue $110 minus $40 costs = $70 net; raw would have been $60. Upside only $10, and you waited weeks.
• CGC 10: revenue $200 minus $26 costs = $174 net; upside $114 over raw.
• CGC 9.5: revenue $140 minus $26 costs = $114 net; upside $54 over raw.

Takeaway: with modern cards where PSA 9 barely beats raw, you are grading for a shot at the top. If centering or print lines make a gem unlikely, CGC can be a better ROI because the 9.5 premium over raw still clears the lower fee.

Example Two: Vintage Holo With Honest Wear

Consider a late nineties holo that sells raw in lightly played for $150. Recent slabs show PSA 6 at $175, PSA 7 at $230, and PSA 8 at $320. CGC 7.5 sits near $210 and CGC 8.5 around $300.

• PSA economy all-in cost: $25 fee + $10 shared shipping/insurance = $35.
• CGC economy all-in cost: $15 fee + $10 shared shipping/insurance = $25.

Outcomes:

• PSA 6: $175 minus $35 = $140 net, which is worse than selling raw at $150.
• PSA 7: $230 minus $35 = $195 net, a $45 lift over raw.
• PSA 8: $320 minus $35 = $285 net, a $135 lift.
• CGC 7.5: $210 minus $25 = $185 net, a modest $35 lift.
• CGC 8.5: $300 minus $25 = $275 net, a $125 lift.

Takeaway: borderline vintage with visible wear needs to clear a grade threshold to justify grading. If you think it caps at PSA 6, sell raw. If it can hit a clean 7 or better, the math starts to work.

PSA Versus CGC: Price Curves and Liquidity

Both companies grade consistently at scale, but their price curves are shaped differently in many Pokémon categories.

• PSA often commands the highest price at the top grade. The jump from 9 to 10 can be dramatic, which attracts gamblers and high-end buyers.
• CGC introduced a 10 grade that is stricter than many expect. The 9.5 grade frequently carries a healthy premium over raw, and submission fees are often lower, which can improve ROI in mid-grade outcomes.
• Liquidity matters. PSA slabs may move faster on average for widely collected cards, especially in auctions. CGC slabs can perform very well in buy-it-now and fixed-price formats, particularly when priced with the fee advantage in mind.

If your card realistically lives in the 9 to 9.5 band, CGC can be the better profit engine. If you have a credible shot at true gem mint, PSA’s top-end premium can outweigh the higher fee.

Build a Personal Break-Even Chart

You do not need fancy software. A small list on paper or a spreadsheet works.

1. Write your all-in fee per company.
2. List grade outcomes across a two grade window.
3. Subtract the fee from each grade’s recent sale price.
4. Compare those nets to today’s raw sale net.

Whichever company and outcome shows the best worst-case net is the safer play. You are not only maximizing upside; you are minimizing regret if the grade comes in soft.

Turnaround Time Is Part of ROI

Markets move. Meta cards rotate. Hype fades. If a two month turnaround risks missing a demand window, bake that risk into your decision. A smaller profit today can beat a theoretical bigger profit later if the later market cools. This is especially true for modern chase cards linked to current set buzz.

Risk Management With Pre-Screening

Pre-screening means you decide a minimum acceptable grade and only slab cards that meet it. If a card does not clear your centering and surface bar, you sell raw. This simple habit reduces fee bleed on mid outcomes. Some collectors even use company pre-screens at bulk tiers, but you can do it yourself with strict light checks and a magnifier.

When Not to Grade

There are crystal clear no-go scenarios.

• Raw price is within a few dollars of the common slab grade you expect. Fees will erase gains and you lose time.
• Obvious damage that knocks the card into the low end of mid grades. Buyers pay for eye appeal. A low slab does not magically create it.
• Mass printed modern where supply is deep and PSA 9 sells for the same as near mint raw. Unless you are hunting a 10, keep it raw.

When Grading Is Almost Automatic

There are also green lights.

• Scarce promos or trophy-adjacent cards where authentication and protection add trust on high dollar sales.
• Vintage holos with a genuine shot at top mid to high grades, where population reports show thin supply.
• Iconic characters from nostalgia sets that carry large grade premiums and stable demand.

What About Subgrades, Labels, and Pedigrees

Subgrades can help explain why a 9.5 earned its number and sometimes boost confidence in the card’s strengths. Attractive or special labels rarely change ROI by themselves. Pedigree labels tied to famous collections can matter at the top end, but for everyday flips the buyer still cares most about the number and the card’s eye appeal.

Fee Control Tactics That Add Up

Small optimizations compound across batches.

• Batch submissions to spread shipping and insurance across more cards.
• Pick the slowest tier that still matches your timing needs. Faster is rarely necessary.
• Skip cleaning hacks that risk damage. A microfiber and compressed air for loose dust is enough.
• Use card savers and fresh sleeves to avoid corner bumps in transit.

Listing Strategy: Maximize the Slab Premium You Paid For

A slab only helps if buyers can see why it deserves a premium.

• Lead with grade, set, and variant in the title. Include edition details like First Edition or Shadowless if relevant.
• Photograph head-on plus angled light to showcase a clean surface. Add a close crop of the holo and corners.
• Price to the last two weeks of comps, not to outlier highs. If you want velocity, undercut the median slightly and make it easy to say yes.

Raw Versus Slab: A Simple Choice Framework

Use this quick flow.

1. Is there a credible path to a top grade that outpaces fees by $50 or more? If yes, continue. If no, sell raw.
2. Will the market for this card be equal or better in six to eight weeks? If not, sell raw.
3. Does the card have flaws that cap it at a mid grade? If yes, consider CGC for fee efficiency or keep it raw.
4. Are you batching enough cards to dilute shipping and insurance? If not, the single-card fee tax may ruin ROI.

Beginner Quick Start

If you are new and want a ramp that avoids common pitfalls, read Should I Grade My Cards? (A Brutally Honest Guide for Beginners) and then sanity check fees and timelines with How Much Does It Cost to Get a Card Graded—And Is It Worth It. Those two pieces cover process and pricing; this article plugs in the profit math so your decision is grounded in numbers.

Final Take

Grading is not a personality trait. It is a business decision that should clear a hurdle rate. When the top grade premium dwarfs fees and your card realistically qualifies, send it. When it does not, take the clean raw sale and redeploy your cash into the next opportunity. Treat every submission like an investment proposal with inputs, assumptions, and a downside plan. Do that consistently and your slab stack will be full of wins instead of tuition payments.